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Live Election results 2013

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How the presidential race will be decided in first round
Posted on Monday, February 18, 2013 @ 17:47:48 CST by kwpnews

RavenNuke(tm)
Kenyatta and Odinga remain locked in a tight race

KWP - The recent polls released by the three polling organizations, infotrak, Ipsos Synovate and Strategic Research, might seem to suggest a tight race in the presidential contest, but the relative support and size of the contestant traditional bases will most likely result in a sizeable lead between the eventual Presidential election winner and the runners up.



One constituent that polls often miss to measure during these polls are the rural residents, especially women, who comprise the largest part of the electorate on Election Day.

Additionally, the turn out on Election Day will likely be the single most determinant of who carries the day on election night.

Given that most pollsters rate the leading contestant within the 43% – 46%   support range, the feeling of most Kenyan at this time is a belief that the presidential race will not have any of the contestant achieving the 50% + 1 of the vote cast.

However if there will be disparity in the relative turnout proportions of voters in the traditional bases of the two contestants equivalent to 4-7% of the voters cast, then notwithstanding the statistical tied  opinion poll number, Kenya will have a new president elected in the first round on March 4 2013.

Furthermore, the debate may have produced unanticipated results that Kenyans do not seem to factor. According to most pundits, the debate was meant to be a formality because most Kenyans were viewed as fixed in tribal cocoons, in terms of how they viewed the contenders in the race.

The strong performance of some contestants coupled with the low likelihood of some candidates winning could have the potential of shuffling tribal vote baskets to tilt the votes in favor of the candidates that appealed the most to the voters and with the additional prospect of winning the race.

So as the pundits continue with the tight race prediction, reality may produce a shocker on election day.
 


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